European leaders welcome ‘significant progress’ on Ukraine talks and set out key next steps, but ‘nothing agreed until everything is agreed’
In the last few minutes, the German government has issued a statement on behalf of the European leaders taking part in the Berlin talks.
The statement says they welcome “significant progress” in – pointedly – “Trump’s efforts to secure a just and lasting peace in Ukraine,” and agreed to work together with Trump and Zelenskyy “to get to a lasting peace with preserves Ukrainian sovereignty and European security.”
They say they are particularly looking to “provide robust security guarantees and economic recovery support measures for Ukraine.”
Some of the specific ideas put forward in the statement include “sustained and significant support for Ukraine to build its armed forces,” at a peacetime level of 800,000 soldiers, “to be able to deter conflict and defend Ukraine’s territory.”
The statement also says that “a European-led multinational force Ukraine” would be involved in “assisting in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, securing Ukraine’s skies, and supporting safer seas,” operating “inside Ukraine” (so, far away from any possible frontline).
The leaders also talk about a “US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism with international participation” to “provide early warning of any future attack” and be able to attribute any breach to de-escalate situation.
Crucially for Ukraine, they also call for “a legally binding commitment” to “take measures to restore peace and security in the case of a future armed attack,” through the use of armed forces, intelligence, logistical, economic and diplomatic actions. Presumably, that’s what Zelenskyy referred to as “Article 5-like” guarantees.
There is also further language on “investing in the future prosperity of Ukraine,” and supporting Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
The document also includes a critically important caveat that “international borders must not be changed by force,” and reiterated that any decisions on this issue must be taken by the people of Ukraine, and only once “robust security guarantees are in place.”
“They agreed that some issues would need to be resolved in the final stages of negotiations,” the paper says.
The leaders “were clear that as in any deal, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and that all parties must work intensively towards a solution that could assure a lasting end to the fighting,” it added.
(The phrase ‘Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed’ is making me get flashbacks from Brexit talks.)
Finally, they call upon Russia “to show willingness to work towards a lasting peace” and say they agreed to “continue to increase pressure on Russia to bring Russia to negotiate as soon as possible.”
Over to you, Moscow.
(They don’t quite say that, but think it’s fair to say that’s what they mean.)
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Here is a summary of what happened today:
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European leaders, US negotiators and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy have all hailed “significant progress” on Ukraine talks after crunch talks in Berlin, while noting some areas of disagreements still required further work (18:22, 18:42).
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A group of European leaders, including UK’s Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Friedrich Merz, issued a detailed statement welcoming the progress and outlining key areas – including security guarantees, support for armed forces, and presence of a European-led multinational force in Ukraine – that are being agreed, but noted that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” (20:15).
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In an unusually upbeat update, US negotiators involved in the Berlin talks claimed that “90%” of the issues between Ukraine and Russia have been resolved (17:56).
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US president Trump said “we are closer now … than we have ever been” to a peace agreement on Ukraine, but admitted “it’s a difficult one,” as he praised “a long discussion” with European leaders, praising them for “tremendous support” for ending the war (21:36), a significant tone shift compared to his last week’s comments on his EU counterparts.
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Trump also confirmed the ongoing work on security guarantees to be provided for Ukraine to “so the war doesn’t start again,” saying “Europe would be a big part of that” (22:05).
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Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy also sounded cautiously positive, but made it clear that he needed more detail on security guarantees before he can contemplate any far-reaching asks, including for concessions on territory (18:13).
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Separately, the EU’s discussion on the use of frozen Russian assets to fund its help for Ukraine continued amid signs that the bloc is bitterly divided on the European Commission’s proposals, complicating the prospect of its adoption at this week’s European Council (11:52, 18:21, 19:11).
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And that’s all from me, Jakub Krupa, for today.
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If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com.
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I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.
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Responding to questions from reporters, Trump repeated largely the same lines, saying “I want to see it end, they want to see it end, and I actually think that president Putin wants to see it end.”
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He also said he recently spoke with Putin, without offering more detail.
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Pressed further, Trump also said that the US administration was working with Europe on “the security guarantees so the war doesn’t start again,” and “Europe would be a big part of that.”
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But, more contentiously, in response to a question on whether Ukraine would need to give up any territory he muttered “they have already lost some territory, to be honest.”
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He said there was no time limit on reaching a deal, and “the time limit is whenever we get it done.”
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In the last few minutes, the US president Donald Trump has offered his take on the latest development.
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Speaking at the White House after his call with European leaders, he said they had “a long discussion and things are seemingly going well,” but he heavily caveated that by saying “we have been saying that for a long time.”
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He admitted “it’s a difficult one,” but he said that “we are trying to get it done” and “I think we are closer now that we have ever been and we will see what we can do.”
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He said the priority was to “save a lot of lives.”
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He added:
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“We are getting closer. We’re having tremendous support from European leaders. They want to get it ended also.
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And at this moment, Russia wants to get it ended. The problem is they’ll want to get it ended, and then all of a sudden they won’t, and Ukraine will want to get it ended, and all of a sudden they won’t, so we have to get them on the same page.”
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The idea of a European-led multinational force helping out Ukraine is not exactly new and remains the key topic of discussions in the French and UK-led Coalition of the Willing.
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But a recent More in Common research showed that Britain is the only country of the five polled – with France, Germany, Poland, and the US – where a majority of the public backed the idea of sending peacekeepers to Ukraine (55%, with 28% against).
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There was somewhat strong support for the idea in the US too, with 49% in favour, and 35% against.
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But the suggestion was far more divisive in the other three European countries with more people against than supporting the proposal: Germany (44% against, 42% in favour), France (45% against, 43% in favour), and Poland (55% against, 31% in favour).
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Curiously, however, over the course of 2025, the support for such mission has gone up in Poland – despite the country’s leadership ruling out their involvement given its close proximity to Russia and the need to strengthen its own defences – and the US, and fallen in France.
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In the last few minutes, the German government has issued a statement on behalf of the European leaders taking part in the Berlin talks.
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The statement says they welcome “significant progress” in – pointedly – “Trump’s efforts to secure a just and lasting peace in Ukraine,” and agreed to work together with Trump and Zelenskyy “to get to a lasting peace with preserves Ukrainian sovereignty and European security.”
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They say they are particularly looking to “provide robust security guarantees and economic recovery support measures for Ukraine.”
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Some of the specific ideas put forward in the statement include “sustained and significant support for Ukraine to build its armed forces,” at a peacetime level of 800,000 soldiers, “to be able to deter conflict and defend Ukraine’s territory.”
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The statement also says that “a European-led multinational force Ukraine” would be involved in “assisting in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, securing Ukraine’s skies, and supporting safer seas,” operating “inside Ukraine” (so, far away from any possible frontline).
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The leaders also talk about a “US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism with international participation” to “provide early warning of any future attack” and be able to attribute any breach to de-escalate situation.
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Crucially for Ukraine, they also call for “a legally binding commitment” to “take measures to restore peace and security in the case of a future armed attack,” through the use of armed forces, intelligence, logistical, economic and diplomatic actions. Presumably, that’s what Zelenskyy referred to as “Article 5-like” guarantees.
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There is also further language on “investing in the future prosperity of Ukraine,” and supporting Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
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The document also includes a critically important caveat that “international borders must not be changed by force,” and reiterated that any decisions on this issue must be taken by the people of Ukraine, and only once “robust security guarantees are in place.”
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“They agreed that some issues would need to be resolved in the final stages of negotiations,” the paper says.
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The leaders “were clear that as in any deal, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and that all parties must work intensively towards a solution that could assure a lasting end to the fighting,” it added.
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(The phrase ‘Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed’ is making me get flashbacks from Brexit talks.)
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Finally, they call upon Russia “to show willingness to work towards a lasting peace” and say they agreed to “continue to increase pressure on Russia to bring Russia to negotiate as soon as possible.”
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Over to you, Moscow.
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(They don’t quite say that, but think it’s fair to say that’s what they mean.)
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Before going to Berlin, UK prime minister Keir Starmer spoke with Nato secretary general Mark Rutte, also attending, to discuss their strategy for the night.
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A Downing Street spokesperson said:
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“The leaders began by discussing the significant progress made in recent days on the peace plan and agreed that this evening is an opportunity to make further essential progress at this critical moment for Euro-Atlantic security.
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Both leaders agreed on the importance of continuing to support Ukraine’s military capabilities to defend itself whilst the diplomatic talks continue.”
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Defence and security editor
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In other parts of her speech, Metreweli said the UK faces a new “age of uncertainty” where the rules of conflict are being rewritten, particularly in light of wider Kremlin aggression after the invasion of Ukraine.
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new head of Britain’s MI6, Blaise Metreweli, makes her first public speech in London.”,”caption”:”The new head of Britain’s MI6, Blaise Metreweli, makes her first public speech in London.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Kirsty Wigglesworth/Reuters”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
“The export of chaos is a feature, not a bug, in the Russian approach to international engagement,” the agency’s first female chief will argue, and “until Putin is forced to change his calculus” it is expected to continue.
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She also warned:
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n
“But the response to the increasing risks we face won’t be delivered by the UK intelligence community alone. Wider society has a role to play too. That includes work taking place in schools across the country so our children don’t get duped by information manipulation. Let’s all check sources, consider evidence, and be alive to those algorithms that trigger intense reactions, like fear.
n
It also means everyone in society really understanding the world we are in – a world where terrorists plot against us, where our enemies fearmonger, bully and manipulate, and the front line is everywhere. Online, on our streets, in our supply chains, in the minds and on the screens of our citizens.”
n
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You can read her speech in full here.
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Similar comments about the scale of the threat, particularly from Russia, are expected to be made this evening by Air Chief Marshal Richard Knighton, the chief of the defence staff.
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He is due to say in a separate speech that “the situation is more dangerous than I have known during my career” and call for the country as a whole to be “stepping up”.
“,”elementId”:”0ba0a141-a2a6-402d-a3e5-f90416a3962c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”‘The frontline is everywhere’: new MI6 head to warn of growing Russian threat”,”elementId”:”9d3c4de0-54cd-4cdb-ab7a-3817edc211a4″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/dec/15/new-mi6-head-blaise-metreweli-speech-russia-threat”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1765824816000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”13.53 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1765825071000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”13.57 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1765825072000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”13.57 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”13.57″,”title”:”‘The frontline is everywhere,’ new MI6 head warns of growing Russian threat”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Dan Sabbagh”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/4/17/1397749330599/DanSabbagh.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=f641045dc110c3bb8e92127b230af380″,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/06/Dan-Sabbagh,-L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=cec99c5da174842615d73509b87e8008″}],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 15 Dec 2025 16.29 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Mon 15 Dec 2025 04.50 EST”},{“id”:”694058c58f08c2ef1a3c2a47″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Back to the UK, Blaise Metreweli, the head of the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service, MI6, said Vladimir Putin was “dragging out negotiations” over Ukraine, in keeping with the spy agency’s long-standing assessment that the Russian leader was not serious about ending the war, except on very favourable terms to the Kremlin.
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new head of Britain’s MI6, Blaise Metreweli makes her first public speech in London.”,”caption”:”The new head of Britain’s MI6, Blaise Metreweli makes her first public speech in London.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Kirsty Wigglesworth/AFP/Getty Images”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
She accused Putin of engaging in “historical distortions” while insisting that the UK’s support for Ukraine would be enduring, because “it is fundamental not just to European sovereignty and security but to global stability”.
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prime minister Donald Tusk is welcomed by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the Chancellery in Berlin.”,”caption”:”Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk is welcomed by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the Chancellery in Berlin.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Odd Andersen/AFP/Getty Images”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1765823450000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”13.30 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1765823827000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”13.37 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1765823827000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”13.37 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”13.37″,”title”:”Leaders arrive for Berlin talks — in pictures”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 15 Dec 2025 16.29 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Mon 15 Dec 2025 04.50 EST”},{“id”:”694052618f086557e32bc3e9″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
And here is the cast for tonight’s crunch EU-Ukraine-US talks in Berlin, hosted by Germany’s Friedrich Merz.
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pose for a family photo at the Chancellery in Berlin, where they meet for talks on how to end the grinding war of Russia with Ukraine.”,”caption”:”Leaders pose for a family photo at the Chancellery in Berlin, where they meet for talks on how to end the grinding war of Russia with Ukraine.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Kay Nietfeld/AFP/Getty Images”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
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Back row: Norway’s Jonas Gahr Støre, Nato’s Mark Rutte, Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, the Netherlands’s Dick Schoof and Sweden’s Ulf Kristersson.
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Front row: Finland’s Alexander Stubb, Poland’s Donald Tusk, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Friedrich Merz, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US envoy Steve Witkoff, US president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni.
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Not pictured, but also expected (hence the British flag): UK’s Keir Starmer.
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It’s also worth highlighting Merz and Zelenskyy’s comments on frozen Russian assets.
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Expect the topic to dominate tonight’s dinner with other European leaders in Berlin, as they figure out if they can find a way forward ahead of this week’s European Council.
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It’s no longer just Belgium – most affected because of Euroclear – but also Malta, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and, crucially, big hitter Italy that appear to be against the idea. That’s why the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said earlier today that it could be tricky to get it agreed this week (11:52)
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Clearly, Merz and UK’s Starmer had hoped to convince Belgium’s prime minister Bart de Wever to drop his opposition during their private dinners on last two Fridays before the list of opposing countries got any longer, but it appears that is not happening.
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What makes it trickier to get him to move is the fact that 67% of Belgians support de Wever’s principled position, a new Le Soir-RTL-Ipsos-Het Laatste Nieuws-VTM poll showed.
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But Merz is also right to point out that in reality it’s either this or nothing (18:21), and you can see his argument that the EU’s credibility to act in a way that actually moves the dial is at stake here – just days after Trump criticised EU leaders that they talk to much, but don’t actually make decisions that matter.
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One to watch.
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On the European side of things, this Merz/Zelenskyy press conference featured some notably more upbeat language on the ability to get to an agreement, including on the key issues such as future security guarantees for Ukraine.
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Merz and Zelenskyy joined Finland’s Alexander Stubb and other leaders in claiming that a ceasefire, or a deal of sorts, is closer than ever. And it’s probably true.
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But there are still important areas in which the two sides are apart, and, crucially, it remains to be seen which part of what was discussed or even provisionally agreed in Berlin survives a US debrief with the Russians. They had previously made it very clear that they were not keen on many European or Ukrainian ideas.
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Both leaders also appeared to be wary of making promises that wouldn’t be kept or sufficient to deter Russia from having another go at Ukraine. Merz’s reference to previous Minsk agreements (18:07), and Zelenskyy’s insistence on seeing “Article 5-like” guarantees all in black and white before he commits on other thorny issues like territories (18:13) send a clear signal here.
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It feels like we will need more details set out publicly – and political commitment, including from Donald Trump – for this issue to progress further.
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But it’s notable that Merz went out of his way to praise the US president for his determination to reach a deal, just a day after he warned in a domestic speech about the end of Pax Americana and the urgent need to change the way Germany thinks about its security and future.
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“The decades of Pax Americana are largely over for us in Europe, and for us in Germany as well. It no longer exists as we knew it. And nostalgia won’t change that,” he said on Sunday in Munich.
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The Europeans face a really tricky balancing act as they need to figure out how to leave that nostalgia towards the US behind and face the increasingly urgent new reality in front of them when it comes to their own security decisions while also having no alternative to working very closely with the US administration if they are to have any hope of finding a way forward on Ukraine.
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Not an easy one, that.
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in Washington
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I’m just off a call with US officials on Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s discussions with the Ukrainians and European delegations in Berlin, which included nearly 8 hours of meetings with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
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chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomes US negotiator Jared Kushner and US special envoy Steve Witkoff at the Chancellery for talks with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.”,”caption”:”German chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomes US negotiator Jared Kushner and US special envoy Steve Witkoff at the Chancellery for talks with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Bundesregierung/Getty Images”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
While the discussions were described as constructive in particular concerning future US-brokered security guarantees for Ukraine, it sounds like the sides are quite far from a comprehensive peace deal, with significant differences remaining on the future status of the occupied Ukrainian territory, as well as key issues like the future operations of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
n The US delegation was upbeat. The officials claimed that they are “90%” of the way toward a deal between Ukraine and Russia — in particular, the US delegation claimed that they had developed “Article 5-like” security guarantees for Ukraine that had satisfied both Kyiv and the Europeans (we’ll see what the Europeans brief about that).
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The US officials said they wouldn’t release details of the security guarantees yet, but that it included “very strong safeguards” to prevent the war from restarting if a deal is reached. That said, the US won’t be putting boots on the ground in Ukraine according to the officials, so they’ll have to release more details to convince skeptics that Russia will respect those “Article 5-like” guarantees in the future.
n A lot of questions remain.
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The main one is territory. It was clear from the call that there is not an agreement yet on who would control what territory after a peace deal and how that territory would be recognised. One US official said they had “brainstormed” on turning the occupied Ukrainian territory into an “economic free zone” and they had spent “a lot of time trying to define what that would mean, how it operates.”
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So there’s a long way to go in those discussions as well, and the US officials admitted that they may not be able to get that issue across the line: “Ultimately, if we can get that defined, then it will really get to [Russia and Ukraine] to work out the final issues of sovereignty and to see if there’s a deal that can be done between them.”
n The US officials said they’ll go back to working groups in the US this weekend, but that they’re ready to travel to Russia or Ukraine in the future if the deal can get done.
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Interestingly, when asked about the use of frozen Russian assets which continues to be opposed by some member states, Germany’s Merz suggestions that it’s the only option that the EU can actually pass, as alternative proposals – including new borrowing – would require unanimity and be effectively blocked by dissenters, such as Slovakia or Hungary.
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At a separate appearance alongside Zelenskyy earlier today, Merz said that the EU’s credibility was at stake if the member states fail to agree on a way forward on this issue at this week’s European Council.
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He warned that “the European Union’s ability to act will be severely damaged for years, if not longer, and we will show the world that we are incapable of standing together and acting at such a crucial moment in our history.”
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In his comments, Zelenskyy says that Ukraine wants to make sure its interests are respected and he says that he feels “that our partners hear Ukraine and are ready to help” and willing to “bring the real end of the war closer.”
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But he repeatedly says that security guarantees must be workable for any peace deal to work, and Ukraine needs clear understanding on what they are and how they will be monitored before it can take any decisions on frontlines and territories.
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He also stresses that territorial issues are “painful” for Ukraine, and the sides are still apart with “different positions” on ceding territory.
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In his opening remarks, Germany’s Merz welcomes “productive discussions” in Berlin, and “a great deal of diplomatic momemtum” to end the war.
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chancellor Friedrich Merz (R) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (L) attend a press conference at the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany.”,”caption”:”German chancellor Friedrich Merz (R) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (L) attend a press conference at the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Clemens Bilan/EPA”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
He says there is “a chance for a real peace process for Ukraine,” even if the talks are still in “early stages.” But he says that “perhaps for the first time” since the outbreak of the full-scale war, reaching a ceasefire appears actually possible.
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He pointedly praises US president Trump, saying that without his “tireless efforts” and “commitment,” the new momentum would not have emerged.
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Merz also says that while Russia keeps playing for time with maximalist demands, the European side of the table is determined to progress the talks.
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He particularly welcomes the US proposals on “legal and material” guarantees for Ukraine, which he calls “remarkable.” “We won’t repeat the mistakes of Minsk,” he said.
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On the thorny issue of territory, he says “it is the Ukrainian people who have defended their territory for almost four years,” and only they can decide on any changes here.
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So, if you’re joining us now, let’s recap the key lines coming out from Berlin this afternoon after we have heard briefings from both the US and Ukraine.
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US and Ukrainian delegations hailed “real progress” in peace negotiations during “really, really positive” talks “in almost every aspect,” with the US delegation claiming that “90%” of the issues between the two sides have been resolved.
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The eight hours talks over Sunday and Monday involved a number of European representatives, including German chancellor Friedrich Merz and national security advisers from France, Germany, and the UK.
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In sharp contrast to last week’s comments by Trump, the European participants was described as “outstanding” and constructive during the talks.
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The talks included discussions of “Article 5-like” security guarantees for Ukraine to protect it against any future Russian aggression, after Kyiv dropped its longstanding ask to be admitted to Nato alliance.
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Russia would also be open to Ukraine joining the European Union, US negotiators claimed.
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US president Donald Trump is believed to be “pleased” with the progress made in talks.
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Some further work has been delegated to working groups to refine existing proposals, with some differences remaining on territory and sovereignty issues.
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Russia said it expected to be updated on the talks by the US side later today.
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US officials say they expect Russia will accept the deal that’s been negotiated with Ukraine this weekend.
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As reported earlier, the US officials say they expect Russia would be open to Ukraine joining the EU and “90%” of the issues between the two sides has been solved.
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However, there is still a “final decision on territory” which will “be up to Ukraine”.
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Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has delivered an address to mark the end of the talks in Berlin. He just spoke at the German-Ukrainian Business Forum.
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He says after two days in Berlin, the talks on the US side were “not easy” but they were productive.
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He also went on to say Russia is using its relentless strikes as leverage in negotiations – noting not a single power station in Ukraine has been exempt from attack.
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Still no detail yet on any tangible compromises made. The two sides are hashing out the US plan presented several weeks ago that has been amended since in other rounds of negotiations in Geneva and Florida.
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The exact details aren’t public but Zelenskyy has said Kyiv will not accept any territorial concessions – which the plan purportedly suggests.
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Ukraine’s top negotiator says on X that talks with the US have been constructive and productive.
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Rustem Umerov, secretary of the National Security and Defence Council, said that “real progress” had been achieved with hopes of lasting peace deal.
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He said the Americans, led by Witkoff and Kushner, were “working extremely constructively to help Ukraine find a way to a peace agreement that lasts.”
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A Syrian man who was arrested at the scene of a stabbing that killed a teen and wounded five others in Austria has admitted terror offences, prosecutors said on Monday.
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The 23-year-old suspect was detained in February in the southern city of Villach after what officials described as an “Islamist attack with Islamic State connections”.
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A fellow Syrian asylum seeker, a food deliverer, stopped the attack by ramming a car into the attacker. A 14-year-old boy died and five others were wounded.
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Announcing charges, prosecutors said that the suspect had admitted “committing terrorist offences”, including murder.
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In a statement they said he had “acted with the intention of seriously intimidating the civilian population which does not follow the goals of the terrorist organisation Islamic State”.
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He faces 20 years in jail or life imprisonment. No date has yet been set for his court hearing.
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Spain’s government said Monday it had fined Airbnb more than €64m for advertising unlicensed tourist rental homes, the Consumer Rights Ministry said on Monday, as the government cracks down on excessive tourism that is driving up housing costs.
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Spain’s leftist government, along with some city councils and regional authorities, has been seeking to curb tourism rentals that use sites such as Airbnb and Booking.com, which many in Spain blame for driving up housing costs by limiting the supply of homes available to residents.
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Airbnb in July withdrew 65,000 listings that the ministry said violated its rules.
n The fine is equivalent to six times the profit Airbnb gained from the illegal listings, the ministry said in a statement, and is the second largest the ministry has imposed for breaching consumer rights, minister Pablo Bustinduy told reporters.
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Airbnb said it would appeal.
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in Brussels
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Russia’s central bank has said it is seeking $230bn (£170bn) in damages from Euroclear, as the Kremlin fired a warning shot against the use of Russian frozen assets to aid Ukraine.
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flag flies over the Russian Central Bank headquarters in Moscow, Russia.”,”caption”:”National flag flies over the Russian Central Bank headquarters in Moscow, Russia.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Maxim Shemetov/Reuters”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The Russian central bank said on Monday that it was claiming 18 trillion roubles, according to local state media reports about the case launched last week.
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EU leaders will decide later this week whether to use €210bn in Russian frozen assets to provide Ukraine with a loan to fund its defence and keep the economy afloat. Most of the assets, €185bn (£162bn), are held at the Euroclear central securities depository in Brussels, which is the keeper of most of the Kremlin’s immobilised money.
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EU officials have argued that the plan is legally sound because Russia remains the owner of its sovereign wealth, which was frozen in European jurisdictions days after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
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Moscow, however, said that using the assets is theft and has threatened to seize European private investors’ holdings in Russia. Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, who has assumed a key role in peace talks, wrote on X that Russia “will win in court” and “get [the assets] back”, adding that the EU, the euro currency and Euroclear “will suffer’” from the plan.
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In an apparent attempt to draw a wedge between Europe and the US, Dmitriev described the assets plan as “a vicious attack on property rights and the international reserves system created by the United States”.
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Euroclear declined to comment. It has previously said it is facing more than 100 lawsuits in Russia.
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We’re just getting a line from Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office, via Reuters, that the Ukraine-US talks in Berlin have just ended.
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Zelenskyy has a busy bilateral agenda in Berlin too, with further meetings expected with German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier, and Bundestag speaker Julia Klöckner before popping into a meeting of the German-Ukrainian Economic Forum and further talks and a press conference with chancellor Friedrich Merz.
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And after all of that, he will still have the evening dinner with European leaders to attend.
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And in the last few minutes, Nato has also confirmed that its secretary general, Mark Rutte, will also be in Berlin.
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Separately, the commission’s deputy chief spokesperson Olof Gill has just confirmed that commission president Ursula von der Leyen will attend the Berlin talks this evening.
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Not a surprise at all, but good to have it formally confirmed.
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We are also getting a line from the German government’s spokesperson, saying that the US representatives have also been invited to this evening’s talks between Zelenskyy and a number of European leaders in Berlin.
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Let’s see how it unfolds.
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Ukrainian negotiators have now started a second round of peace talks in Berlin with their US counterparts, according to a Reuters source familiar with the matter.
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in Brussels
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The EU’s foreign policy chief has said it would not be easy to move forward with the Russian frozen assets plan to finance Ukraine without the say-so of Belgium, which holds most of the Kremlin’s money.
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Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas rings a bell to signify the start of a meeting of EU foreign ministers at the European Council building in Brussels.”,”caption”:”European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas rings a bell to signify the start of a meeting of EU foreign ministers at the European Council building in Brussels.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Virginia Mayo/AP”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Kaja Kallas came close to suggesting Belgium had an effective veto over the decision on whether to use €210bn Russian frozen assets to finance Ukraine. The decision, to be taken by EU leaders on Thursday, requires only a weighted majority of EU countries: 55% of EU member states representing 65% of the population.
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Days after Donald Trump denounced European leaders as “weak”, the EU faces a make-or-break week, with the decision on funding Kyiv a crucial test of its resolve on Ukraine.
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But Kallas suggested EU backers of the frozen assets plan would be reluctant to outvote Belgium, which holds €185bn of the assets at the Euroclear central securities depository in Brussels.
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n
“Of course, we have the QMV decision, but without Belgium, I think it would be increasingly… it wouldn’t be very easy because they have the majority of the assets. And I think it is important that they are on board whatever we do.”
n
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Belgium, backed by Bulgaria, Italy and Malta, has urged the rest of the EU to look seriously at an alternative finance plan for Ukraine: joint EU borrowing secured against unallocated funds in the EU budget.
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Unlike the reparations loan idea, common borrowing requires unanimity and Hungary has already indicated it would not agree.
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Kallas said other funding options were “not really flying”. She recalled her experience as Estonian’s prime minister when she floated the idea of common borrowing for Ukraine: “It was two years ago when I proposed the Eurobonds, it didn’t fly because you need everybody on board.”
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She was speaking ahead of a meeting on Monday of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, who are expected to sign off further tightening of sanctions against Russia. Kallas said 40 vessels and “enablers” would be added to the EU’s shadow fleet sanctions list, which aims to choke off trade in Russian oil traded above an international price cap, carried by ageing tankers with murky ownership structures.
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Being listed means vessels cannot obtain insurance or access to ports in the EU. By 23 October the EU had listed 557 vessels, but officials admit the fleet is constantly being renewed.
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And in the last few minutes, Zelenskyy has published a short summary of his talks with Finland’s influential Alexander Stubb this morning.
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He said the pair had a “good meeting” as “there is a great deal of work under way on the diplomatic track.”
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“We also coordinated our joint positions ahead of today’s meetings with partners in Berlin and agreed on the next steps,” he said.
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He also thanked Finland for its support and contribution to military purchases through Nato’s Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List, or Purl.
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During this year Stubb emerged as one of the very few European leaders that seem to have access to – and the ear of – Trump and his team, playing a critical role in Europe’s efforts to influence the negotiations.
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president Alexander Stubb arrives for Monday’s talks in Berlin, Germany.”,”caption”:”Finland’s president Alexander Stubb arrives for Monday’s talks in Berlin, Germany.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Tobias Schwarz/AFP/Getty Images”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1765794766000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”05.32 EST”,”blockLastUpdated”:1765794954000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”05.35 EST”,”blockFirstPublished”:1765794954000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”05.35 EST”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”05.35″,”title”:”‘Great deal of work under way,’ Zelenskyy says after morning talk with Finland’s Stubb”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 15 Dec 2025 16.29 EST”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Mon 15 Dec 2025 04.50 EST”},{“id”:”693fe2038f08b246d57a6b38″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
In his remarks to reporters after Sunday’s talks, Zelenskyy said that while Ukraine was prepared to drop its Nato aspirations, it would still require “Article 5-like” security guarantees from the US and European partners.
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Article 5 is Nato’s collective defence clause which essentially says “that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all”.
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It remains to be seen if that’d be accepted by the US, and if so, how they would go about convincing Moscow to accept it as part of the settlement.
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The Kremlin said on Monday that Ukraine not joining Nato was a fundamental question in talks on a possible peace settlement.
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Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Russia expects an update from the US after its talks with European countries and Ukraine in Berlin.
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Reuters noted that Russian president Vladimir Putin has repeatedly demanded Ukraine officially renounce its Nato ambitions and withdraw troops from the about 10% of Donbas which Kyiv still controls. Moscow has also said Ukraine must be a neutral country and no Nato troops can be stationed in Ukraine.
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Over the weekend, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy has offered to drop Ukraine’s aspirations to join Nato, as he held first talks with US envoys in Berlin on Sunday.
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The move marks a big shift for Ukraine, which has fought to join Nato as a safeguard against Russian attacks and has such an aspiration included in its constitution. It also meets one of Russia’s war aims, although Kyiv has so far held firm against ceding territory to Moscow.
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Key Ukraine-US talks are set to continue in Berlin today after five hours of negotiations on Sunday, with a group of European leaders later joining the Ukrainian leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to show their solidarity with Kyiv.
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and security policy adviser Guenter Sautter, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Rustem Umerov, facing the US delegation, among them US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner (back row C) and US special envoy Steve Witkoff (back row 2ndR) at the start of their meeting in a conference room in the Chancellery in Berlin yesterday.”,”caption”:”Foreign and security policy adviser Guenter Sautter, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Rustem Umerov, facing the US delegation, among them US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner (back row C) and US special envoy Steve Witkoff (back row 2ndR) at the start of their meeting in a conference room in the Chancellery in Berlin yesterday.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Guido Bergmann/Presse- und Informationsamt der 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Once the talks with the US are concluded, the mini-summit will bring together Britain’s Keir Starmer, Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen, Finland’s Alexander Stubb, Norway’s Jonas Gahr Støre, the Netherlands’s Dick Schoof, Poland’s Donald Tusk, Sweden’s Ulf Kristersson, as well as top EU and Nato officials.
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Europe’s Trump whisperer and his occasional golf partner, Finland’s Stubb, told journalists on Sunday that “we’re probably closer to a peace agreement than we have been at any time during these four years.”
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US envoy Steve Witkoff also said that “a lot of progress was made” during the Sunday talks.
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But some key questions still remain and are believed to do with Ukrainian territorial concessions in the contested east, and crucial security guarantees to avoid a third aggression from Russia. Moscow has been publicly dismissive of any calls put forward by Ukraine’s European partners so far.
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Today’s talks with the US and the mini-summit in Berlin – set to be attended by seven European leaders, and top figures in the EU and Nato – come just days before the key European Council summit in Brussels later this weekend, which will decide on the proposal of using frozen Russian funds to fund Ukraine through a reparations loan.
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Over the weekend, new Czech prime minister Andrej Babiš has joined the growing group of countries critical of the proposal, led by Belgium and supported by Italy. “We will not take guarantees for anything nor put any money in,” he said on Saturday.
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It looks like a decisive week for the EU and its ability to influence the end of the Ukraine war – first with Germany working together with Ukraine to put the European arguments to the US, and then by a show of European unity in support of Kyiv, and second with the much-anticipated decision on the reparations loan.
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Whether they will succeed in making progress on either of the two things remains to be seen.
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But US president Donald Trump, who only last week branded EU leaders as weak and indecisive, will be certainly looking at their actions to see if they want to challenge his thinking about them.
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I will bring you all the key updates throughout the day.
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It’s Monday, 15 December 2025, it’s Jakub Krupa here, and this is Europe Live.
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Good morning.
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Key events
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Closing summary
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US working with Europe on security guarantees so ‘war doesn’t start again,’ Trump says
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‘I think we are closer now … than we have ever been,’ Trump
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European-led force remains controversial in key countries that could play a role
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European leaders welcome ‘significant progress’ on Ukraine talks and set out key next steps, but ‘nothing agreed until everything is agreed’
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Berlin talks ‘opportunity to make further essential progress’ on Ukraine, Starmer and Rutte say
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‘The frontline is everywhere,’ new MI6 head warns of growing Russian threat
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Putin is ‘dragging out negotiations’ over Ukraine, MI6 chief warns
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Leaders arrive for Berlin talks — in pictures
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Berlin crunch meeting on Ukraine about to get under way
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Using Russian frozen assets to fund Ukraine remains tricky as list of critics of EU’s proposal grow — snap analysis
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There is notable change in tone, but we’re not there yet — snap analysis
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Despite positive US rhetoric, sounds like Ukraine, US are still quite far from comprehensive deal — snap analysis
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Merz suggests EU plan on frozen Russian assets is only one possible under voting rules
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Ukraine needs clarity on guarantees before it can consider territorial asks, Zelenskyy says
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Merz hails new momentum in Ukraine talks, US security guarantees, with ‘chance for real peace process’
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US officials briefing on talks with Ukraine — summary
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Russia open to Ukraine joining EU, say US officials
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Zelenskyy says talks with US side ‘not easy’ but ‘productive’
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Ukraine negotiator notes ‘real progress’ in second round Berlin talks
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Syrian admits deadly knife attack in Austria
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Spain fines Airbnb €64m for unlicensed rental listings
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Russia seeks $230bn in damages from Euroclear over seized assets
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Ukraine-US talks in Berlin end, Zelenskyy’s office says
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Nato’s Rutte to attend Berlin talks, alliance confirms
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EU’s von der Leyen to attend Berlin talks, commission confirms
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US invited to this evening talks between Zelenskyy and European leaders, Germany says
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Ukraine-US talks restart on second day – report
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Moving ahead with EU plan to fund Ukraine using frozen Russian assets ‘won’t be very easy,’ EU foreign policy chief says amid Belgium’s opposition
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‘Great deal of work under way,’ Zelenskyy says after morning talk with Finland’s Stubb
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Ukraine still wants ‘Article 5-like’ security guarantees, Zelenskyy says
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Ukraine not joining Nato fundamental issue for Russia, Kremlin says
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Morning opening: Crunch time
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Closing summary
Jakub Krupa
We are wrapping our coverage of the Berlin talks for tonight.
Here is a summary of what happened today:
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European leaders, US negotiators and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy have all hailed “significant progress” on Ukraine talks after crunch talks in Berlin, while noting some areas of disagreements still required further work (18:22, 18:42).
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A group of European leaders, including UK’s Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Friedrich Merz, issued a detailed statement welcoming the progress and outlining key areas – including security guarantees, support for armed forces, and presence of a European-led multinational force in Ukraine – that are being agreed, but noted that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” (20:15).
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In an unusually upbeat update, US negotiators involved in the Berlin talks claimed that “90%” of the issues between Ukraine and Russia have been resolved (17:56).
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US president Trump said “we are closer now … than we have ever been” to a peace agreement on Ukraine, but admitted “it’s a difficult one,” as he praised “a long discussion” with European leaders, praising them for “tremendous support” for ending the war (21:36), a significant tone shift compared to his last week’s comments on his EU counterparts.
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Trump also confirmed the ongoing work on security guarantees to be provided for Ukraine to “so the war doesn’t start again,” saying “Europe would be a big part of that” (22:05).
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Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy also sounded cautiously positive, but made it clear that he needed more detail on security guarantees before he can contemplate any far-reaching asks, including for concessions on territory (18:13).
Separately, the EU’s discussion on the use of frozen Russian assets to fund its help for Ukraine continued amid signs that the bloc is bitterly divided on the European Commission’s proposals, complicating the prospect of its adoption at this week’s European Council (11:52, 18:21, 19:11).
And that’s all from me, Jakub Krupa, for today.
If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com.
I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.
US working with Europe on security guarantees so ‘war doesn’t start again,’ Trump says
Responding to questions from reporters, Trump repeated largely the same lines, saying “I want to see it end, they want to see it end, and I actually think that president Putin wants to see it end.”
He also said he recently spoke with Putin, without offering more detail.
Pressed further, Trump also said that the US administration was working with Europe on “the security guarantees so the war doesn’t start again,” and “Europe would be a big part of that.”
But, more contentiously, in response to a question on whether Ukraine would need to give up any territory he muttered “they have already lost some territory, to be honest.”
He said there was no time limit on reaching a deal, and “the time limit is whenever we get it done.”
‘I think we are closer now … than we have ever been,’ Trump
In the last few minutes, the US president Donald Trump has offered his take on the latest development.
Speaking at the White House after his call with European leaders, he said they had “a long discussion and things are seemingly going well,” but he heavily caveated that by saying “we have been saying that for a long time.”
He admitted “it’s a difficult one,” but he said that “we are trying to get it done” and “I think we are closer now that we have ever been and we will see what we can do.”
He said the priority was to “save a lot of lives.”
He added:
“We are getting closer. We’re having tremendous support from European leaders. They want to get it ended also.
And at this moment, Russia wants to get it ended. The problem is they’ll want to get it ended, and then all of a sudden they won’t, and Ukraine will want to get it ended, and all of a sudden they won’t, so we have to get them on the same page.”
European-led force remains controversial in key countries that could play a role
The idea of a European-led multinational force helping out Ukraine is not exactly new and remains the key topic of discussions in the French and UK-led Coalition of the Willing.
But a recent More in Common research showed that Britain is the only country of the five polled – with France, Germany, Poland, and the US – where a majority of the public backed the idea of sending peacekeepers to Ukraine (55%, with 28% against).
There was somewhat strong support for the idea in the US too, with 49% in favour, and 35% against.
But the suggestion was far more divisive in the other three European countries with more people against than supporting the proposal: Germany (44% against, 42% in favour), France (45% against, 43% in favour), and Poland (55% against, 31% in favour).
Curiously, however, over the course of 2025, the support for such mission has gone up in Poland – despite the country’s leadership ruling out their involvement given its close proximity to Russia and the need to strengthen its own defences – and the US, and fallen in France.
European leaders welcome ‘significant progress’ on Ukraine talks and set out key next steps, but ‘nothing agreed until everything is agreed’
In the last few minutes, the German government has issued a statement on behalf of the European leaders taking part in the Berlin talks.
The statement says they welcome “significant progress” in – pointedly – “Trump’s efforts to secure a just and lasting peace in Ukraine,” and agreed to work together with Trump and Zelenskyy “to get to a lasting peace with preserves Ukrainian sovereignty and European security.”
They say they are particularly looking to “provide robust security guarantees and economic recovery support measures for Ukraine.”
Some of the specific ideas put forward in the statement include “sustained and significant support for Ukraine to build its armed forces,” at a peacetime level of 800,000 soldiers, “to be able to deter conflict and defend Ukraine’s territory.”
The statement also says that “a European-led multinational force Ukraine” would be involved in “assisting in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, securing Ukraine’s skies, and supporting safer seas,” operating “inside Ukraine” (so, far away from any possible frontline).
The leaders also talk about a “US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism with international participation” to “provide early warning of any future attack” and be able to attribute any breach to de-escalate situation.
Crucially for Ukraine, they also call for “a legally binding commitment” to “take measures to restore peace and security in the case of a future armed attack,” through the use of armed forces, intelligence, logistical, economic and diplomatic actions. Presumably, that’s what Zelenskyy referred to as “Article 5-like” guarantees.
There is also further language on “investing in the future prosperity of Ukraine,” and supporting Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
The document also includes a critically important caveat that “international borders must not be changed by force,” and reiterated that any decisions on this issue must be taken by the people of Ukraine, and only once “robust security guarantees are in place.”
“They agreed that some issues would need to be resolved in the final stages of negotiations,” the paper says.
The leaders “were clear that as in any deal, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and that all parties must work intensively towards a solution that could assure a lasting end to the fighting,” it added.
(The phrase ‘Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed’ is making me get flashbacks from Brexit talks.)
Finally, they call upon Russia “to show willingness to work towards a lasting peace” and say they agreed to “continue to increase pressure on Russia to bring Russia to negotiate as soon as possible.”
Over to you, Moscow.
(They don’t quite say that, but think it’s fair to say that’s what they mean.)
Berlin talks ‘opportunity to make further essential progress’ on Ukraine, Starmer and Rutte say
Before going to Berlin, UK prime minister Keir Starmer spoke with Nato secretary general Mark Rutte, also attending, to discuss their strategy for the night.
A Downing Street spokesperson said:
“The leaders began by discussing the significant progress made in recent days on the peace plan and agreed that this evening is an opportunity to make further essential progress at this critical moment for Euro-Atlantic security.
Both leaders agreed on the importance of continuing to support Ukraine’s military capabilities to defend itself whilst the diplomatic talks continue.”
‘The frontline is everywhere,’ new MI6 head warns of growing Russian threat
Dan Sabbagh
Defence and security editor
In other parts of her speech, Metreweli said the UK faces a new “age of uncertainty” where the rules of conflict are being rewritten, particularly in light of wider Kremlin aggression after the invasion of Ukraine.
“The export of chaos is a feature, not a bug, in the Russian approach to international engagement,” the agency’s first female chief will argue, and “until Putin is forced to change his calculus” it is expected to continue.
She also warned:
“But the response to the increasing risks we face won’t be delivered by the UK intelligence community alone. Wider society has a role to play too. That includes work taking place in schools across the country so our children don’t get duped by information manipulation. Let’s all check sources, consider evidence, and be alive to those algorithms that trigger intense reactions, like fear.
It also means everyone in society really understanding the world we are in – a world where terrorists plot against us, where our enemies fearmonger, bully and manipulate, and the front line is everywhere. Online, on our streets, in our supply chains, in the minds and on the screens of our citizens.”
You can read her speech in full here.
Similar comments about the scale of the threat, particularly from Russia, are expected to be made this evening by Air Chief Marshal Richard Knighton, the chief of the defence staff.
He is due to say in a separate speech that “the situation is more dangerous than I have known during my career” and call for the country as a whole to be “stepping up”.
Putin is ‘dragging out negotiations’ over Ukraine, MI6 chief warns
Kiran Stacey
Back to the UK, Blaise Metreweli, the head of the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service, MI6, said Vladimir Putin was “dragging out negotiations” over Ukraine, in keeping with the spy agency’s long-standing assessment that the Russian leader was not serious about ending the war, except on very favourable terms to the Kremlin.
She accused Putin of engaging in “historical distortions” while insisting that the UK’s support for Ukraine would be enduring, because “it is fundamental not just to European sovereignty and security but to global stability”.
Leaders arrive for Berlin talks — in pictures
Jakub Krupa
Oh, to be a fly on the wall flag for these Zelenskyy/Witkoff exchanges.
Berlin crunch meeting on Ukraine about to get under way
And here is the cast for tonight’s crunch EU-Ukraine-US talks in Berlin, hosted by Germany’s Friedrich Merz.
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Back row: Norway’s Jonas Gahr Støre, Nato’s Mark Rutte, Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, the Netherlands’s Dick Schoof and Sweden’s Ulf Kristersson.
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Front row: Finland’s Alexander Stubb, Poland’s Donald Tusk, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Friedrich Merz, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US envoy Steve Witkoff, US president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni.
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Not pictured, but also expected (hence the British flag): UK’s Keir Starmer.
Using Russian frozen assets to fund Ukraine remains tricky as list of critics of EU’s proposal grow — snap analysis
Jakub Krupa
It’s also worth highlighting Merz and Zelenskyy’s comments on frozen Russian assets.
Expect the topic to dominate tonight’s dinner with other European leaders in Berlin, as they figure out if they can find a way forward ahead of this week’s European Council.
It’s no longer just Belgium – most affected because of Euroclear – but also Malta, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and, crucially, big hitter Italy that appear to be against the idea. That’s why the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said earlier today that it could be tricky to get it agreed this week (11:52)
Clearly, Merz and UK’s Starmer had hoped to convince Belgium’s prime minister Bart de Wever to drop his opposition during their private dinners on last two Fridays before the list of opposing countries got any longer, but it appears that is not happening.
What makes it trickier to get him to move is the fact that 67% of Belgians support de Wever’s principled position, a new Le Soir-RTL-Ipsos-Het Laatste Nieuws-VTM poll showed.
But Merz is also right to point out that in reality it’s either this or nothing (18:21), and you can see his argument that the EU’s credibility to act in a way that actually moves the dial is at stake here – just days after Trump criticised EU leaders that they talk to much, but don’t actually make decisions that matter.
One to watch.
There is notable change in tone, but we’re not there yet — snap analysis
Jakub Krupa
On the European side of things, this Merz/Zelenskyy press conference featured some notably more upbeat language on the ability to get to an agreement, including on the key issues such as future security guarantees for Ukraine.
Merz and Zelenskyy joined Finland’s Alexander Stubb and other leaders in claiming that a ceasefire, or a deal of sorts, is closer than ever. And it’s probably true.
But there are still important areas in which the two sides are apart, and, crucially, it remains to be seen which part of what was discussed or even provisionally agreed in Berlin survives a US debrief with the Russians. They had previously made it very clear that they were not keen on many European or Ukrainian ideas.
Both leaders also appeared to be wary of making promises that wouldn’t be kept or sufficient to deter Russia from having another go at Ukraine. Merz’s reference to previous Minsk agreements (18:07), and Zelenskyy’s insistence on seeing “Article 5-like” guarantees all in black and white before he commits on other thorny issues like territories (18:13) send a clear signal here.
It feels like we will need more details set out publicly – and political commitment, including from Donald Trump – for this issue to progress further.
But it’s notable that Merz went out of his way to praise the US president for his determination to reach a deal, just a day after he warned in a domestic speech about the end of Pax Americana and the urgent need to change the way Germany thinks about its security and future.
“The decades of Pax Americana are largely over for us in Europe, and for us in Germany as well. It no longer exists as we knew it. And nostalgia won’t change that,” he said on Sunday in Munich.
The Europeans face a really tricky balancing act as they need to figure out how to leave that nostalgia towards the US behind and face the increasingly urgent new reality in front of them when it comes to their own security decisions while also having no alternative to working very closely with the US administration if they are to have any hope of finding a way forward on Ukraine.
Not an easy one, that.
Despite positive US rhetoric, sounds like Ukraine, US are still quite far from comprehensive deal — snap analysis
Andrew Roth
in Washington
I’m just off a call with US officials on Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s discussions with the Ukrainians and European delegations in Berlin, which included nearly 8 hours of meetings with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
While the discussions were described as constructive in particular concerning future US-brokered security guarantees for Ukraine, it sounds like the sides are quite far from a comprehensive peace deal, with significant differences remaining on the future status of the occupied Ukrainian territory, as well as key issues like the future operations of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
The US delegation was upbeat. The officials claimed that they are “90%” of the way toward a deal between Ukraine and Russia — in particular, the US delegation claimed that they had developed “Article 5-like” security guarantees for Ukraine that had satisfied both Kyiv and the Europeans (we’ll see what the Europeans brief about that).
The US officials said they wouldn’t release details of the security guarantees yet, but that it included “very strong safeguards” to prevent the war from restarting if a deal is reached. That said, the US won’t be putting boots on the ground in Ukraine according to the officials, so they’ll have to release more details to convince skeptics that Russia will respect those “Article 5-like” guarantees in the future.
A lot of questions remain.
The main one is territory. It was clear from the call that there is not an agreement yet on who would control what territory after a peace deal and how that territory would be recognised. One US official said they had “brainstormed” on turning the occupied Ukrainian territory into an “economic free zone” and they had spent “a lot of time trying to define what that would mean, how it operates.”
So there’s a long way to go in those discussions as well, and the US officials admitted that they may not be able to get that issue across the line: “Ultimately, if we can get that defined, then it will really get to [Russia and Ukraine] to work out the final issues of sovereignty and to see if there’s a deal that can be done between them.”
The US officials said they’ll go back to working groups in the US this weekend, but that they’re ready to travel to Russia or Ukraine in the future if the deal can get done.
Merz suggests EU plan on frozen Russian assets is only one possible under voting rules
Interestingly, when asked about the use of frozen Russian assets which continues to be opposed by some member states, Germany’s Merz suggestions that it’s the only option that the EU can actually pass, as alternative proposals – including new borrowing – would require unanimity and be effectively blocked by dissenters, such as Slovakia or Hungary.
At a separate appearance alongside Zelenskyy earlier today, Merz said that the EU’s credibility was at stake if the member states fail to agree on a way forward on this issue at this week’s European Council.
He warned that “the European Union’s ability to act will be severely damaged for years, if not longer, and we will show the world that we are incapable of standing together and acting at such a crucial moment in our history.”
